The NHL's off-season is heating up, and with it, the speculation around contract extensions and free agency. As we approach July 1, the focus shifts to players with one year left on their deals, like Cale Makar, who could be in line for a substantial raise. The question on everyone's mind is: could Makar's next contract top $20 million annually? Let's dive into the details and explore the possibilities.
The Case for a $20 Million Contract
Makar, a 27-year-old top-five defenseman, is entering the final season of his six-year, $54 million deal with the Colorado Avalanche. With the salary cap landscape expanding, some believe he's due for a significant bump. After all, Pavel Dorofeyev, a fine goal scorer, is reportedly earning $11 million annually. So, what's the value of the world's best defenseman?
In a vacuum, a $20 million contract for Makar would be hard to argue against. He's a superstar, and the cap is rising. However, the Avalanche's culture of frugality, set by Nathan MacKinnon, might keep Makar from asking for the maximum. When MacKinnon signed his last deal, he became the highest-paid player in the NHL, but he's since been surpassed by other superstars like Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews.
The Sweet Spot: $17-18 Million
While Makar might not be asking for the maximum, a $20 million contract is still a possibility. However, I believe a sweet spot between $17 million and $18 million is more likely. This range allows the Avalanche to maintain their depth and competitiveness while still rewarding Makar for his exceptional play.
The Impact of Cap Culture
The Avalanche's cap culture plays a significant role in contract negotiations. Nathan MacKinnon, who has never fully flexed financially, sets the tone for the team. When he signed his last deal, he became the highest-paid player in the NHL, but he's since been surpassed by other superstars. This dynamic could influence Makar's decision, as he might not want to be the highest-paid player on the team.
The Wild's Quinn Hughes
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Wild's Quinn Hughes is also in contract extension talks. Despite the enormity of this file for the Wild, there haven't been many talks so far. However, Wild owner Craig Leipold has all but guaranteed that an extension with Hughes will get done. A three-year extension to match the expiry of his brother Jack's deal with the New Jersey Devils is expected, but the average annual value (AAV) remains uncertain.
Kucherov's Situation
Nikita Kucherov, of the Tampa Bay Lightning, is another player in contract extension talks. Everyone involved has been tight-lipped, with Kucherov's agent, Dan Milstein, warning that he would not be speaking to the media about it. The timing of an extension announcement remains uncertain, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens before the end of the week.
The Devils' Nico Hischier
The New Jersey Devils' captain, Nico Hischier, is likely to extend with the team as early as Wednesday. Negotiations have been taking place for the past month, and an extension is expected.
Carlson's Situation
The Carolina Hurricanes' acquisition of John Carlson's rights over the weekend was a clever move to beat everyone to the market on the pending UFA defenseman. However, there's no guarantee that the Hurricanes will be able to sign him. Carlson's camp is asking for two years and $10 million per season, but a longer-term deal could still get him $20 million in the first two years.
Trouba's Situation
The Carlson situation directly affects Jacob Trouba, a top-four, right-shot defenseman. While the door isn't completely closed on Trouba returning to the Anaheim Ducks, it's very likely that he'll hit the market. Term has been a major issue in talks with the Ducks, with Trouba looking for more term than the team is willing to offer.
Jenner's Situation
Boone Jenner, of the Columbus Blue Jackets, seemed most likely headed to market as of Monday. However, talks are not dead yet, and GM Don Waddell will probably throw an 11th-hour offer at the Jackets' captain. The Avalanche could be a potential landing spot for Jenner if he hits the market.
Quick Hits
• Darnell Nurse and Morgan Rielly are also on the trade market, with Nurse giving the Edmonton Oilers a three-team list to work with. The Oilers may need to expand that list at some point.
• Mason Marchment could be a fit for the Montreal Canadiens if he hits the market, sliding in nicely on that second line. The Toronto Maple Leafs are also lurking.
• Viktor Arvidsson, a pending UFA winger, could be an option for the Bruins after their acquisition of JJ Peterka. GM Don Sweeney has kept the dialogue open with Arvidsson's rep.
• Corey Perry, 41, had 17 goals last season and intends to play next season. Los Angeles is among the options for him, while Tampa Bay is out.
• David Perron, 38, intends to play again next season and is still talking to the Red Wings. If something can't be worked out there, he's looking to hit the open market.
The Case for Rasmus Andersson
Finally, let's talk about pending UFA Rasmus Andersson. When the Vegas Golden Knights traded for Andersson, the assumption was that an extension wouldn't be far behind. However, as of mid-March, they had only $3.2 million in projected cap space for next season. As of Wednesday, when the new league year begins, Vegas will be able to sign Andersson, and I'd be surprised if they didn't keep him around.
In conclusion, the NHL's off-season is heating up, and with it, the speculation around contract extensions and free agency. As we approach July 1, the focus shifts to players with one year left on their deals, like Cale Makar, who could be in line for a substantial raise. While a $20 million contract is a possibility, I believe a sweet spot between $17 million and $18 million is more likely, allowing the Avalanche to maintain their depth and competitiveness while still rewarding Makar for his exceptional play.
